The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued predictions for the upcoming winter season and forecasts normal to slightly above normal rainfall and above normal temperatures in Pakistan.
These predictions are based on the synoptic situation with the positive phase of climate indicators such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) expected to persist throughout November, December, and January 2023-24.
Additionally, a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is anticipated to transition to neutral conditions by the end of the season.
These atmospheric conditions suggest that western and north-western regions of Pakistan, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, upper Punjab, and adjoining Kashmir, may experience normal to slightly above normal rainfall due to prevailing western weather systems.
Furthermore, temperatures across the country are expected to remain above normal, with slightly above-normal temperatures forecasted for the southwestern parts of Balochistan, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan.
These predictions will have several impacts, including providing an ample water supply for standing crops and vegetables.
However, there may be isolated showers, hails, and wind storms that could disrupt harvesting activities for Kharif crops, especially in the upper regions at the beginning of the season.
Adequate soil moisture is expected to be available for the sowing of upcoming Rabi crops. While intermittent rainfall spells are expected, plain areas of the country may experience thick foggy conditions in between.
