The real question after the latest military standoff between India and Pakistan is not who won—but who lost. And the answer is clear: nearly two billion people across both countries. With each exchange of missiles and rhetoric, the threat of war deepens, and a new arms race becomes all but inevitable. While politicians in New Delhi and Islamabad beat the drums of nationalism, its ordinary citizens who suffer — from lives lost to, resources diverted away from health, education, and poverty relief.
The conflict began on April 22, when gunmen killed 26 civilians in Pahalgam, in Indian-administered Kashmir. A little-known group, The Resistance Front (TRF), claimed responsibility. India quickly blamed Pakistan for the attack—an allegation Islamabad firmly denied. In response, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised retaliation, triggering a dangerous escalation.
On May 7, India launched missile strikes in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and at four locations in Punjab province. These attacks killed at least 38 civilians, including women and children. Over the next few days, both sides exchanged drone attacks and missile strikes. India targeted three Pakistani airbases. Pakistan responded by striking Indian military sites in Indian-administered Kashmir and across the border. During this exchange, Pakistan claimed it shot down six Indian fighter jets, including three Rafale jets acquired from France.
This standoff follows a pattern seen under Prime Minister Modi’s leadership, which draws heavily on Hindutva, a hardline Hindu nationalist ideology. Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have often used military actions and nationalist slogans to boost political support at home.
A similar situation unfolded in 2019 after the Pulwama bombing, where 40 Indian paramilitary soldiers were killed. India blamed Pakistan at that time—without presenting any evidence—and launched airstrikes on Balakot. In response, Pakistan shot down two Indian jets and captured a pilot. Modi used the crisis during his re-election campaign, claiming that if India had Rafale jets, the outcome would have been different and India bought 36 Rafale fighter jets from France in 2016 for $9.4 billion and its first batch was delivered to India in 2020. India signed another deal in April this year to buy 26 more Rafale fighter jets worth $7.4 billion.
In direct response to India’s military buildup, Pakistan turned to China and acquired a full squadron of 25 Chinese multirole J-10C fighter jets in 2022, which have since become a key part of its deterrent force—including in the most recent standoff. The parallel investments underscore how political decisions and past confrontations have locked both countries into a costly and escalating arms race.
The latest crisis is not new—its part of a long-standing arms race between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. Since their partition in 1947 and the first war over Kashmir in 1948, India and Pakistan have fought three more wars (1965, 1971, and 1999) and numerous skirmishes. Each conflict has fueled a cycle of military buildup and retaliation.
India’s nuclear tests in 1974 and again in 1998 were followed by Pakistan’s own nuclear tests later in 1998, officially making both countries nuclear powers. Since then, both sides have continued investing heavily in missile systems, advanced aircraft, naval capabilities, and nuclear deterrents. Doctrines like India’s “Cold Start” and Pakistan’s development of tactical nuclear weapons have further deepened the strategic competition.
Under Modi, however, India has taken a more aggressive stance—not just toward Pakistan but also toward other neighbours. Modi’s foreign policy increasingly relies on military strength rather than diplomacy.
Pakistan sees India’s growing military power and aggressive policies as a threat. In response, it has invested in and upgraded its own military equipment with modern technologies.
The defence budgets of both countries tell a worrying story. For 2025–26, India allocated $77.4 billion to defence, a 9.5% increase from the previous year. Over five years, India has spent around $384 billion on its military. Pakistan, with far fewer resources, has still increased its defence budget to $7.6 billion for 2024–25—up nearly 17.6% from previous years. Its five-year military spending now totals about $51.4 billion.
On the Global Power Index, India is ranked 4th out of 145 countries, while Pakistan is ranked 12th. The Indian Air Force has a total of 2,229 aircrafts in its fleet as compared to Pakistan’s 1399. If we talk about tanks, India has 4,201 different types of tanks as compared to Pakistan’s 2,627. Indian Navy’s fleet strength stands at 293 as compared to Pakistan’s 121.
Both governments argue that these budgets are essential for national security. But the cost to their people is high. According to the UN Human Development Report, India ranks 134th out of 193 countries. Pakistan ranks even lower at 164th out of 193 countries. Meanwhile, the UN’s Multidimensional Poverty Index shows 234 million people in India and 93 million in Pakistan still live in poverty. Despite this, both countries continue to spend billions on weapons instead of development.
Even if war does not break out again soon, both sides are likely to accelerate their military buildups. India will look to address gaps in its defence systems and match Pakistan’s air capabilities with new aircraft and missile systems, while Pakistan will invest further to counter any future Indian attacks. But this race isn’t just about tanks and jets—it’s about national budgets. And every rupee or dollar spent on missiles is a rupee or dollar not spent on schools, hospitals, or clean water
While the United States helped bring about a ceasefire, the mood in the region—especially in India—remains tense. Modi continues to portray military strength as a symbol of national pride. Shortly after the clashes, he posted on X (formerly Twitter), “To those who feel slightly dejected at their scores, I want to tell them: one exam can never define you. Your journey is much bigger and your strengths go far beyond the mark sheet.” These remarks were widely interpreted as a broader attempt to frame recent events as minor setbacks—and suggest that India may still be preparing to escalate the situation further. Adding to this perception, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh declared that Operation Sindoor is not over and that what the world has seen so far is "just the trailer." He warned that the "full picture" would emerge if required, keeping the door open for further military action.
Even if war does not break out again soon, both sides are likely to accelerate their military buildups. India will look to address gaps in its defence systems and match Pakistan’s air capabilities with new aircraft and missile systems, while Pakistan will invest further to counter any future Indian attacks. But this race isn’t just about tanks and jets—it’s about national budgets. And every rupee or dollar spent on missiles is a rupee or dollar not spent on schools, hospitals, or clean water.
The people of India and Pakistan, already burdened by poverty and underdevelopment, continue to suffer. Prime Minister Modi’s aggressive, jingoistic politics—driven by Hindutva thinking—has not only raised tensions but also forced Pakistan to respond militarily, triggering a dangerous cycle. Instead of choosing peace, Modi’s confrontational policies have made military buildup a permanent part of regional diplomacy.
This tit-for-tat defence spending drains vital public funds, leaving little for education, healthcare, or poverty relief. Even in times of calm, Modi’s politics ensures that peace remains unstable, militarised, and far too expensive for two nations already struggling to meet basic needs.
Unless there is a serious realisation and effort to change course, especially on the part of the Modi government, it will not be soldiers or governments who pay the price—it will be the people. And they’re already paying.
