Lahore could witness an extremely rare snowfall later this month as long-range weather models signal an intense cold wave set to grip Pakistan, driven by a powerful surge of frigid Siberian air. Meteorological models are indicating a historic drop in temperatures across large parts of the country, with conditions not seen in nearly a century.

According to extended forecasts from major global models including ECMWF, GFS, and ICON, an extraordinary winter system is expected to impact Pakistan between January 16 and January 25, 2026, with its peak intensity likely between January 20 and January 25.

Lahore - rare snowfall?

Forecast models suggest Lahore could receive up to 5 inches of snowfall, an event described by forecasters as extremely rare. Minimum temperatures in the city may fall between -2°C and -4°C, while daytime highs could remain close to freezing. If verified, this would mark the first snowfall in Lahore since 1878, making it a potentially historic weather event.

Nationwide Impact Expected

Meteorologists explain that a changing atmospheric pattern, including the arrival of a jet stream and multiple western disturbances, will first bring fluctuating temperatures before a much stronger low-pressure system pulls bitterly cold air from Siberia and Central Asia into the region.

The cold wave is expected to affect the entire country, from the plains of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to lower Sindh. Sub-zero temperatures are being projected in areas that rarely experience freezing conditions.

Other Key Forecast Highlights

Islamabad and Rawalpindi may see snowfall in urban areas, with temperatures potentially dropping below -5°C. Murree could record temperatures as low as -13°C, with heavy snowfall totaling 2 to 4 feet. Quetta may plunge to -15°C to -20°C, with dangerous wind chills. Also, Karachi could approach near-freezing temperatures, an occurrence last recorded in 1929

Snow or sleet is also being forecast for cities such as Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Abbottabad, Muzaffarabad, and Peshawar, while much of Balochistan may experience snow, strong winds, and severe frost conditions.

Warnings and Outlook

Forecasters have issued extreme cold and wind warnings for Balochistan between January 21 and 25, cautioning residents about frostbite risks and hazardous travel conditions.

Weather experts stress that this remains a long-range forecast, and further updates will be issued as the system draws closer. A detailed forecast update is expected on January 16.