Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have strengthened their control over wartime decision-making, despite the loss of senior commanders, driving a hardline strategy behind Tehran’s drone and missile operations across the region.
According to senior sources, the Guards had anticipated attacks on their leadership and had delegated authority down the ranks before Saturday’s US-Israeli strikes, a strategy aimed at building resilience.
While this decentralization allows operations to continue despite losses, it could increase the risk of miscalculations or wider conflict, as mid-ranking officers have authority to launch attacks on neighboring states. On Wednesday, Iran fired missiles at Turkey, a NATO member.
Inside Iran, the Guards’ central role in security and governance may also make it harder for domestic protests to emerge, undermining hopes that foreign strikes would trigger uprisings or regime change.
Analysts say the appointment of the next supreme leader, following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could further consolidate the Guards’ influence, particularly if Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, who has close ties to the Guards, ascends to power.
Sources indicate that since the start of the current conflict, the Guards have taken part in nearly every major decision. Deputy Defence Minister Reza Talaeinik explained that each commander has designated successors two to three ranks down, ensuring continuity in case of casualties.
This decentralization strategy was developed over the past 20 years after observing the collapse of Iraqi forces during the 2003 US-led invasion, allowing the Guards to defend individual provinces and sustain regime authority.
The Guards serve a dual role: acting as the primary military force against external threats while also enforcing internal security within Iran. Though the strategy has so far maintained operational cohesion, sustained attacks targeting both senior and junior commanders could test the organization’s effectiveness.
While the Guards face internal factional rivalries, sources say they are more united than ever when Iran is under attack. Some analysts note that recent attacks on civilian targets in Gulf states may reflect the strain on the command structure or a deliberate show of force.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that the Guards are operating based on pre-planned instructions rather than real-time directives from political leaders. The organization also benefits from a surviving political leadership, with several top officials being former Guards members.
Founded after the 1979 revolution, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps functions as a state-within-a-state, combining military, intelligence, and economic power to ensure the survival of Iran’s Islamic system.
Over time, the Guards have expanded their role to the nuclear program, the economy through major construction projects, and support for Shi’ite proxies across the Middle East, while also using their paramilitary force, the Basij, to suppress internal unrest.
