Pakistan’s second half-year economic review with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has entered a critical phase as the lender flagged a significant $11 billion discrepancy in the country’s trade data over the past two years.

According to official briefings, the Pakistan Automation System and Pakistan Single Window identified a $5.1 billion mismatch in import figures for 2023–24, which further widened to $5.7 billion in 2024–25.

The IMF has urged Islamabad to correct the old trade data and make it publicly available, noting that the statistical office’s system has not been updated since 2017 — leading to underreported foreign imports.

IMF concerned over data reliability

The IMF was briefed that the largest discrepancies were recorded in the textile sector ($3 billion) and metals ($1 billion). Officials warned that reforms to address these inconsistencies could temporarily impact economic growth and export performance.

The Fund has emphasized the need for data transparency and modernized reporting systems to ensure fiscal accuracy.

Provincial govts struggle to meet surplus targets

Meanwhile, technical discussions between the IMF mission and federal and provincial representatives continue in Islamabad. Policy-level talks are expected to begin next week.

Officials from Pakistan’s provinces have requested the IMF to review their budget surplus targets, citing heavy financial losses caused by recent floods.

Punjab, the most affected by floods, fears missing its Rs740 billion surplus target.
Sindh has sought relaxation on its Rs370 billion target due to disaster-related spending.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) has tied its Rs220 billion surplus to receiving full transfers from the federal government.
Balochistan, aiming for a Rs150 billion surplus, may also fall short.

Last fiscal year, provinces collectively missed their surplus target by Rs280 billion.

Sources confirm that none of the major provinces — Punjab, Sindh, and KP — can meet the current surplus goals due to flood expenditures. The matter will be formally raised in policy-level talks next week, where Pakistan and the IMF are expected to negotiate fiscal adjustments.

The federal government has also requested leniency on its primary budget surplus target of Rs3.1 trillion, arguing that flood relief and reconstruction efforts have strained fiscal space.

IMF flags missed reform targets

In addition to trade data and fiscal issues, the IMF has expressed concern over Pakistan’s unfulfilled structural reforms. According to official documents, the country was required to amend laws in 10 government institutions by June but failed to meet the deadline.

Pending reforms include amendments to:

Port Qasim Authority Act and Gwadar Port Ordinance
Karachi Port Trust Act 1980
Pakistan Telecom Reorganization Act
State Life Insurance Nationalization Order
WAPDA Act
Pakistan Railways Act 1890
Exim Bank Act
National Bank Act, tied to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Act

The IMF has asked for a clear timeline and explanation for the delays.