Pakistan’s chances of qualifying for the semi-finals of the ICC Men’s Champions Trophy 2025 have taken a major hit after suffering a crushing six-wicket defeat to India at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium on Sunday.

The loss, Pakistan’s second in as many matches, has left the defending champions in a precarious position in Group A.

Having earlier lost to New Zealand in their tournament opener, Pakistan now finds itself on the brink of elimination.

Kohli’s brilliance, Pakistan’s batting woes

Opting to bat first after winning the toss, Pakistan struggled to build momentum against a disciplined Indian bowling attack. Muhammad Rizwan’s men were bowled out for 241 in the final over, failing to capitalize on a solid start.

The total, which appeared below par on Dubai’s batting-friendly surface, proved to be insufficient against an in-form Indian side.

The defeat leaves Pakistan in a must-win situation, with their qualification now dependent on other results in the group.

How Pakistan can still qualify for semi-finals

Despite back-to-back losses, Pakistan is not yet mathematically out of the tournament. However, their qualification hinges on a series of favorable outcomes in the remaining Group A fixtures.

Bangladesh must beat New Zealand on February 24
- A Bangladesh victory would keep Pakistan’s hopes alive, ensuring that New Zealand does not move to four points.
Pakistan must defeat Bangladesh convincingly on February 27
- A win alone would not be enough; Pakistan must secure a comprehensive victory to boost their net run rate (NRR), which could prove decisive in case of a tie on points.
India must defeat New Zealand on March 2
- If India secures a dominant victory over the Blackcaps, Pakistan could advance on NRR, provided all three teams—Pakistan, Bangladesh, and New Zealand—finish with two points each.

However, if New Zealand wins against Bangladesh on February 24, both Pakistan and Bangladesh will be eliminated from the tournament, making India and New Zealand the two semi-finalists from Group A.

Adding to Pakistan’s concerns is the possibility of washouts affecting the remaining matches. Any abandoned game due to rain would result in shared points, further diminishing Pakistan’s already slim chances of progressing.

With their fate no longer in their own hands, Pakistan will need not just an exceptional performance in their final group match but also a stroke of luck from the other fixtures to keep their title defense alive.