The European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA have confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4, which was recently discovered, has a 1.2% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032.
While the risk remains low, scientists are closely monitoring the asteroid as part of ongoing efforts to better understand potential threats to the planet.
According to ESA and NASA experts, the asteroid is expected to safely pass by Earth, with a nearly 99% probability of avoiding impact. However, further observations in the coming years will be essential in refining predictions about its trajectory and potential impact risk.
The asteroid, which is estimated to be between 131 and 328 feet (40 and 100 meters) wide, could cause significant damage to local regions if it were to strike Earth. According to ESA scientists, asteroids of this size occasionally impact the planet every few thousand years, though large-scale impacts are rare.
Dr. Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, noted that the asteroid's size is comparable to that of a large building.
"The actual size of the asteroid is still uncertain, and astronomers are using multiple telescopes to make follow-up observations," he said. "If it turns out to be on the larger side of its estimated size range, the impact could cause blast damage as far as 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the impact site."
Despite the potential for damage, Dr. Chodas emphasized that the asteroid's high-speed entry into Earth's atmosphere—at an estimated 17 kilometers per second (38,028 miles per hour)—would be the key factor in determining the severity of any impact. He added that this scenario remains unlikely, as the odds of the asteroid actually striking Earth are still very small.
The findings of ESA and NASA come as part of a broader effort to monitor and track near-Earth objects. As advancements in space observation technology continue, scientists are better equipped to assess the potential risks posed by asteroids and other space debris, offering a greater chance to mitigate potential threats to our planet.
