The director general of the Met Department, Mehr Sahibzad Khan, issued a high-alert advisory on Thursday, warning of an intensified monsoon season this year with above-average rainfall expected across several parts of Pakistan, potentially triggering floods and landslides.

Speaking at a press conference in Islamabad, Khan said that the department was maintaining constant coordination with the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMA) to ensure preparedness for possible extreme weather events.

"Monsoon in Pakistan typically arrives in July-August and continues until mid-October. Based on both local and international indicators, we are forecasting this year's pattern a month in advance to enable timely preparedness,” said Khan.

Above-normal rainfall predicted

The central and southern parts of the country are likely to receive 20% more rainfall than usual, while northeastern Punjab and Kashmir will also experience heavier downpours, which could lead to urban flooding and riverine floods.

In contrast, slightly below-normal rainfall is expected in northern KP and Gilgit-Baltistan, although rising temperatures in these areas could trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).

“There is a risk of floods and landslides due to increased rainfall and temperature changes,” Khan cautioned. He urged all stakeholders to stay alert and implement early preparedness measures, especially in low-lying regions of Sindh and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Impact on dams and agriculture

Providing current water levels of major reservoirs, the DG said:

Tarbela Dam: 1,477 feet (safe)
Mangla Dam: 1,160 feet (dead level: 1,050 feet)
Rawal Dam: 1,739 feet (dead level: 1,708 feet)
Simbal Dam: 2,255 feet (dead level: 2,233 feet)
Khanpur Dam: 1,926 feet (dead level: 1,910 feet)

“These rainfall patterns will benefit water storage in Tarbela and Mangla Dams, and support agricultural productivity across rain-fed zones,” he noted.

Climate change effects

Khan also highlighted the worsening impact of climate change, stating that weather patterns have become more intense and unpredictable.

“What used to be a few days of rain is now falling in a few hours. We must always be prepared to deal with sudden shifts,” he stressed.

The DG warned of dust storms and gusty winds in certain areas, which could temporarily bring down temperatures but may also damage infrastructure and crops.

Urgent Call for Preparedness

"With floods likely in Sindh, Punjab, and Azad Kashmir, and GLOFs expected in northern Pakistan, it is crucial for authorities and the public to remain on high alert over the coming weeks,” he added.

He concluded by advising that local governments and emergency services should strengthen early warning systems and ensure swift response capabilities to minimize damage during the upcoming monsoon season.