Pakistan could continue facing dependence on international lenders as official estimates show the country will need $123 billion in external financing over the next five years.
The projections have sparked fresh concerns about whether Pakistan can fully exit the cycle of IMF-backed programs, with sources indicating the country may have to approach the International Monetary Fund again to meet future debt repayment obligations.
Pakistan is currently operating under a $7 billion IMF loan program that is expected to conclude in September or October next year.
However, new financial projections suggest the country’s external financing requirements will remain substantial even after the current program ends.
According to official documents, Pakistan’s total external financing needs over the next five fiscal years are estimated at approximately $123 billion.
The figures have raised questions about how the country will manage future debt repayments and whether another IMF arrangement may eventually become necessary.
External financing needs to remain high
Documents show that Pakistan’s external financing requirement for the upcoming fiscal year is estimated at $21.2 billion. The financing burden is expected to rise significantly in the following years.
According to the projections, external financing needs could reach a record $29.88 billion during fiscal year 2027-28. For fiscal year 2028-29, the requirement is estimated at $23.59 billion.
The country is projected to need $22 billion in external financing during fiscal year 2029-30. By fiscal year 2030-31, external financing needs are expected to increase again, reaching approximately $26 billion.
Officials say funds currently available
Despite concerns about future financing requirements, officials maintain that resources are currently available to meet Pakistan’s external debt obligations and payment commitments.
They insist that arrangements are in place for existing external loans and repayments.
However, the long-term projections underline the scale of the challenge facing policymakers in managing debt repayments while sustaining economic growth.
The documents also project a current account deficit of $3.6 billion during the next fiscal year. The outlook suggests that Pakistan will continue to require foreign inflows to support its balance of payments position and meet external financing obligations.
IMF stresses flexible exchange rate policy
The IMF has emphasized the importance of maintaining a flexible exchange rate regime as part of Pakistan’s economic management framework.
According to budget-related projections, the government has assumed an exchange rate of Rs290 per US dollar for the upcoming fiscal year.
The Pakistani rupee is expected to depreciate by approximately 3.5% against the dollar next year.
Meanwhile, the interbank exchange rate is projected to remain relatively stable around Rs278.42 per dollar during the current fiscal year.
Govt, provinces to secure new foreign loans
Documents further indicate that the federal government and provincial governments are expected to acquire foreign loans worth $3.2 billion in the next fiscal year.
The borrowing is expected to form part of broader efforts to meet financing requirements and support development and fiscal commitments.
While officials remain confident about the availability of funds in the short term, the latest projections highlight the magnitude of Pakistan’s external financing challenge.
With financing needs estimated at $123 billion over five years and the current IMF program nearing its end, economic policymakers may face increasing pressure to secure sustainable funding sources, manage debt repayments and maintain macroeconomic stability.
