A US congressional commission has concluded that Pakistan achieved military success over India during the four-day conflict in May, marking the most significant escalation between the nuclear neighbours in more than 25 years.

The report highlights China’s decisive role -- both as Pakistan’s primary weapons supplier and as an actor that leveraged the conflict to test its newest military systems.

The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC), in its annual report submitted to Congress, stated that Pakistan “won a victory” in the May 7–10 clashes.

The report noted that Pakistan relied heavily on Chinese weaponry and intelligence support during the fighting, which included missile strikes, drone attacks, and artillery exchanges. The commission said the Indian Army accused China of providing “live inputs” on 109 Indian military positions, though both Pakistan and China denied such claims.

Chinese weapons central to Pakistan’s success

According to the USCC, Pakistan’s military success showcased several of China’s most advanced systems in their first-ever real-world combat test. These included: HQ-9 surface-to-air missile systems, PL-15 air-to-air missiles, J-10C fighter aircraft.

Pakistan also used Chinese weapons to shoot down Indian aircraft, including French-made Rafale jets, the report stated -- though it noted conflicting claims about the final number.

In a significant ripple effect, the report said Indonesia halted its planned Rafale purchase after observing Pakistan’s successful use of Chinese systems. The global reputation of the Rafale platform “was damaged,” the report added.

China capitalised on conflict to promote defense

The commission described China as having “leveraged” the Pakistan-India conflict to test and advertise weapon sophistication amid its own border tensions with India.

Following the clash, Chinese embassies actively promoted the battlefield performance of Chinese systems. The report cited French intelligence, which alleged that China used AI-generated images and fake social media accounts to undermine Rafale sales while promoting its J-35 fifth-generation fighters.

In June 2025, China reportedly offered Pakistan 40 J-35 fighter jets, KJ-500 early-warning aircraft and advanced ballistic missile defense systems.

The report highlighted growing military ties between Beijing and Islamabad:

Warrior-VIII joint counterterrorism drills (Nov–Dec 2024)
China’s navy participation in AMAN multinational exercises (Feb 2025)

China remains Pakistan’s largest defence supplier, accounting for 81–82% of Pakistan’s arms imports between 2019 and 2023.

Pakistan, in the aftermath of the conflict, announced a 20% increase in its defence budget, raising expenditures to $9 billion, despite an overall national budget reduction.

India’s losses and conflicting claims

India used a mix of French Rafales and Russian aircraft in the May conflict, suffering losses it did not publicly quantify. Senior Indian officials later claimed they had downed Pakistani Chinese-made fighters and US-built F-16s, though without supporting details.

The USCC report points out that Pakistan said it downed at least six Indian aircraft, including newly acquired Rafales. It added that while only three Indian jets may have been confirmed lost, China still used Pakistan’s claims as a marketing advantage.

While Beijing called for “maximum restraint” after the fighting began, it has not officially commented on the performance of its weapons in the conflict, Pakistan’s claims, or the USCC report. India has also not responded to the congressional findings.