The Finance Ministry has released its latest monthly economic outlook report, indicating improvements in interest rates, inflation, exports, and remittances, supported by policy reforms and external stability.
The report claims that a sustained economic recovery is underway during the current fiscal year. Other areas that showed progress were foreign exchange reserves, rupee appreciation, investment, and tax revenue.
Inflation and interest rates
- Inflation is expected to range between 5.8% and 6.8% in November, with a further decline to 5.6%-6.5% projected for December.
- The policy rate has been reduced from 22% to 15%, reflecting improved monetary conditions.
Export growth and industry performance
- Exports of goods and services grew by 8.7%, surpassing $13 billion in the first four months of the fiscal year.
- Textile and auto industry production recorded an increase in four months.
- Industrial production saw mixed results, with significant increases in sectors such as:
- Cars: 51%
- Trucks and buses: 80%
- Jeeps: 55%
- However, tractor production dropped by 54.2%, and the overall output of large-scale industries fell by 0.8%.
Remittances and foreign investments
- Remittances increased by 34.7%, totaling $11.84 billion from July to October.
- Foreign direct investment (FDI) rose by 32% to $904.3 million, while total foreign investment grew by 56%, exceeding $1 billion.
Foreign exchange reserves and currency stability
- Foreign exchange reserves climbed from $7.38 billion to $11 billion.
- The Pakistani rupee appreciated, with the dollar’s value decreasing by Rs8.7 compared to the previous year, settling at Rs277.80.
Fiscal and current account improvements
- Tax revenue surged by 25.3%, reaching Rs3,443 billion.
- The current account recorded a surplus of $218 million from July to October.
Agricultural and machinery imports
- Imports of agricultural machinery rose by 71% in the first four months, supporting the agriculture sector.
Inflation was 7.2% in September, 8.7% from July to October, according to the Finance Ministry. It also noted that the economic recovery is underpinned by continued policy support and external stability. Despite challenges such as a slight contraction in large-scale industry output, the overall outlook remains optimistic. The ministry expects further improvement as reforms take root.
