Pakistan’s fertile lands have long been celebrated for their bounty of seasonal fruits—vibrant citrus, succulent mangoes, and crisp, sweet apples. These fruits are not only an economic lifeline, contributing millions to the national economy but also a cherished part of the cultural fabric.

Punjab’s citrus belt supplies the world with high-quality Kinnow, Sindh and Punjab dominate global mango exports, and the lesser-known South Waziristan region boasts a history of rich apple and pomegranate harvests.

Yet, this agricultural heritage is facing an existential crisis. The looming spectre of climate change is reshaping weather patterns, disrupting growing cycles, and forcing farmers to grapple with dwindling water supplies, disease outbreaks, and shifting seasons. What was once a sweet harvest is now a bitter struggle for survival.

Speaking Exclusively to Samaa Digital, Principal Scientist at Ayub Agricultural Research Institute, Faisalabad Dr Abid Niaz stressed that climate change is taking a significant toll on Pakistan’s iconic citrus and mango crops. Rising temperatures, unpredictable precipitation patterns, and an increased frequency of extreme weather events are severely disrupting their growth cycles.

“Farmers are no longer worrying about improving quality; they are struggling just to maintain any viable production,” Dr Niaz explained, adding that these challenges are eroding the livelihoods of growers and threatening Pakistan’s position in global fruit markets.

Citrus fruits

Punjab is the citrus capital of Pakistan with millions of acres of Kinnow and other citrus orchards. What was once the crown jewel of Pakistan's agricultural export sector, these orchards are now showing the harsh effects of climate change. The citrus belt of Sargodha, famous for high-quality Kinnow, has witnessed a drastic decline in production because of erratic weather patterns.

Citrus production has declined sharply to 151 tons per 1,000 acres in the 2022-23 season from 198 tons per 1,000 acres in the peak season of 2020-21.

Long heatwaves, short winters and erratically distributed rain have disturbed the precise equilibrium that is required for the citrus fruits to be grown flawlessly. These factors have caused the citrus fruits to become smaller in size, sun-scorched peels, and high infestation with citrus canker.

Citrus Production Trends
Infogram

Climate change has been absolutely devastating to citrus exports. Over the past few years, the export value of citrus from Pakistan has shrunk almost by half not just in terms of quality but in quantity too. During the 2021-22 season, exports had already plummeted by 30%, and things did not look better in 2023. Now, farmers are fighting not to grow the best fruit but to grow any fruit at all. This impacts the livelihoods of thousands of workers engaged in the cultivation, packaging, and export of citrus.

Mangoes: The king battles for Its throne

Mangoes are the lovingly termed "king of fruits." But like all big crops, the mango business is also facing the attack of climate change. The most renowned ones are now facing a new threat due to changing weather patterns- Chaunsa, Sindhri, and Sufaid Chaunsa. One of the major issues mango orchards suffer from is delayed flowering, which becomes more pronounced during longer and grimmer winters.

The fluctuating weather pattern actually breaks into the mango flowering season and results in a very erratic fruit setting, smaller mangoes, and poor quality mangoes. Extreme heat during the ripening period also contributes to sunburned mangoes that are unacceptable for export.

The farmers in the mango heartlands of Multan, Sindh and other regions are concerned about the future of their crops. Production of mangoes in Punjab dropped to 35-40% during the 2023 season, and in Sindh, it fell even more drastically—by over 50%.

According to APFVEA, the mango industry with a worth of over Rs100 billion also witnessed a decline in production during the year as for the third successive year. The industry employing millions of persons is no longer even meeting its export target. For instance, in 2022, the export target was 125,000 metric tons, but the achieved target was only 100,000 metric tons because there were inadequate numbers of export-quality mangoes.

Mangoes Data Visualization
Infogram

The APFVEA has fixed exportation of 100,000 metric tons during the 2023 mango season. However, that is a drop by a mile from previous target values. Still, due to reasonable weather conditions, the production is expected to accrue about $90 million in foreign exchange. Poor weather conditions have already impacted Pakistan on the international scene by prompting China, Japan, and the U.S. into alternative suppliers.

South Waziristan and Kalam's Apple

In the distant mountainous regions of South Waziristan, there were some of the country's richest orchards full of apple trees which were the main source both for local consumption and foreign exports. However, climate change has marred the once-thriving region; the region once used to produce 88,000 tons apples every year comprising world-class fruits exported to international markets. However, currently, the orchard is struggling to survive.

As noted by a local farmer, Malik Farhan the erratic changes in the climate do not even let apple orchards continue due to extreme weather conditions. Novembers in the region, being naturally cold for apple production, have been warmer and quite unrepeatable.

South Waziristan's Decline
Infogram

Water scarcity is another emerging issue. Years of pomegranate cultivation by farmer Omar Khan tell a tale of how devastating droughts and changing rainfall patterns can be. Omar lost 95% of his pomegranate crop in 2023 due to lack of water and the rapid spreading of diseases triggered by climate change.

Apple production in South Waziristan has declined by 20% over the last two years, and there is little hope of a turnaround shortly, says the South Waziristan Agriculture Department.

Conditions are even grimmer for the young orchardists, who are currently being pushed out of their orchards and into alternative sources of livelihood. With such changing climatic patterns in conjunction with limited access to modern farming techniques and financial support, there is little hope offered to the farmers.

Kissir kashmiri apple at Rs 650/box | Jammu & Kashmir | Sopore | ID: 26440802362

The same story prevails in the picture valleys of Kalam, once famed for apples. That is the Kalam region in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where some of Pakistan's finest orchards for apples were once based. According to reports, though, the apple production in Kalam has decreased by a jaw-dropping 60 percent over the past two years. Farmers attribute this to a combination of rising temperatures, delayed snowfall, and erratic rainfall. The once-cold winters that provided the necessary chill for apple growth are becoming milder, affecting the fruit's development. Moreover, the region's water supply has been dwindling, with many farmers struggling to irrigate their orchards.

These changes have sent ripples through the local economy. The business of apples, which used to sustain hundreds of families, is now at risk. Many international buyers have stopped importing Kalam's apples. What was once a thriving apple export industry from Kalam has nearly shut down. Families that have cultivated for generations are now looking for alternate ways to survive because each year their land yields less.

Climate change poses an overwhelming and daunting challenge, but the challenges are not insurmountable. Pakistan's agriculture sector has to take rapid changes in stride to survive. The solutions do exist, but they would only be in joint efforts by farmers, researchers, and policymakers.

Apples Fruits Orchard - Free photo on Pixabay

Innovations would have to be made to make sure Pakistan's fruits would stay valuable. This could be made less harmful through developing crop varieties with resistance to heat and drought. Modern irrigation systems and climatic-resilient agricultural practices can be incorporated. A huge investment is required in terms of research, technology, and education for farmers.

The government must therefore put on its front burner the need for allocation to agricultural research concerning climate adaptation strategies. Farmers should, therefore, be equipped with the information and resources to transition to these more sustainable practices.

Climate change may not have an easy answer, but it is certainly not insurmountable. With innovativeness, sustainable agriculture investment, and more focus on education, agriculture in Pakistan will certainly be a bright future.

The fruit of Pakistan is more than just nutrition; it is the exhibit to represents resilience, creativity, and bonding with the motherland. The time is now to preserve this heritage for future generations.