Iran's miscalculations

Iran is committing a historical mistake right now. No doubt, throughout the war, Iran has shown extraordinary resistance. 

When a country invades another country, it is natural for the people of the invaded nation to become social and political chauvinists (in sophisticated terms, patriots). Before the illegal strikes by the US and Israel, the Iranian nation was divided because of various factors, but economic were too obvious and couldn't be disregarded. 

The deaths of Ali Khamnaei (the bravery of him to accept death impressed millions of people), Ali Larijani and many top-tier of leaders united the Iranian nation due to social and political chauvinism. Then after a bloody war of about four months, an interim truce was announced with the help of mediators (Pakistan being the key, and Qatar). 

The announcement of the truce by the Pakistani prime minister was a win-win situation for all parties, including Israel. None of the parties achieved its stated goals, but everyone had very strong points to claim victory. 

In reality, it was Iran that suffered heavy losses of lives and properties, while at the same time, if there was a single victor of the agreement, that was also Iran. Reportedly, Qatar and UAE jointly transferred 6 billion dollars  immediately to Iran's state bank from the frozen  funds of Iran. UAE transferred 3 billion dollars to Qatar first and then Qatar transferred the total amount to Iran. Iran was promised $300 billion for repatriation and development in the form of investment. 

Except the UAE, every single country from the Gulf region backed diplomatic efforts to achieve peace and, somehow, intentionally or unintentionally, all of them were engaging with Iran. Except for the UAE, every country from the Middle East sent their diplomats to attend the funeral events of the late Ali Khamnaei. 

According to some Arab media reports, diplomatic missions and non-official groups from more than 100 countries attended the funeral of the late supreme leader. It was a big diplomatic win for Iran, which would not have been possible without Pakistan's and Qatar's mediations. The mediators ensured a great deal for Iran; only one clause out of the total 14 was vaguely written, which Iran is allegedly misusing. This clause deals with the control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is taking advantage of this clause unfairly. 
It's written in clear words that Iran will ensure safe passage for vessels through the Strait over the next 60 days, but Tehran started attacking and demanded a toll tax for shipments. 

Ultimately, that diabolical and inconsequential move brought the war back to the region. Iran is attacking its benefactors and well-wishers: Qatar, Oman (with whom Iran wanted to implement the toll tax policy), Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq -- where the coffin of Khamenei was transported for the second funeral in Najaf and Karbala. 

The most uncalculated move in this war is activating the Houthis against Saudi Arabia. It will have far-reaching impacts on the region and obviously Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will be disengaging with Iran for the first time after the successful Chinese mediation between the two countries. Due to the binding defense pact, Pakistan will also have to take a position; most probably, it will side with KSA instead of attacking the Houthis kinetically - making Pakistan a part of this war. 

I repeat: Iran is committing a historical mistake right now. It is losing mediators by either attacking them or forcing them to take a militarily strong defensive position, it may lose the gains of the truce (Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding), not get its frozen assets back, lose the trust of negotiators and the Chinese diplomatic backing, lose economic benefits and any potential repatriation funds, and in the longer run, lose the leverage on Strait of Hormuz. 

So, Iran needs to act as a responsible state and let diplomacy win instead of handing over its control to hardliners.

The writer is a journalist, international affairs analyst and a member of Samaa TV staff