A deepening aviation fuel crisis triggered by the Middle East war could soon disrupt global air travel. Industry experts warn that passenger flights may face cancellations within weeks as supplies run dangerously low, especially in Europe and Asia.
Passenger flights around the world could be grounded in the next two months due to a growing shortage of jet fuel. The crisis has been caused by disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East, a key source for global aviation fuel.
Energy economist Claudio Galimberti warned the situation could become “systemic” within three to four weeks. According to him, severe flight cuts in Europe could begin as early as May and June, with some cancellations already reported.
Asia and Europe most at risk
Countries in Asia are expected to feel the impact first, followed by Europe. Both regions rely heavily on oil from the Gulf and its refineries, making them particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions.
Europe, in particular, depends on the Middle East for about 75% of its jet fuel imports. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed for over six weeks, replacing these supplies has become increasingly difficult.
Six weeks of fuel left, warns IEA
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel left. He cautioned that flight cancellations could begin soon if oil flows are not restored.
Birol described the situation as “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” adding that no country would be immune. He stressed that even wealthy nations would feel the impact as global supply chains tighten.
The crisis stems largely from tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for around one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas. Iran has effectively blocked the passage in response to US and Israeli actions, halting vital exports.
This disruption has sent energy prices soaring. Brent crude prices surged above $100 per barrel from pre-war levels of $66, while jet fuel prices in Europe hit a record $1,838 per tonne in April.
Limited alternatives and supply struggles
European countries are scrambling to replace lost supplies, turning to imports from the US, Nigeria, and other regions. However, the IEA warned that even increased US exports would only cover slightly more than half of the shortfall.
If Europe fails to replace at least 50% of Middle Eastern imports, shortages could begin at select airports, leading to flight cancellations. Even replacing 75% of supplies may only delay disruptions until August.
Airlines are already feeling the financial strain. Fuel accounts for 20% to 40% of operating costs, and rising prices are forcing difficult decisions.
Dutch airline KLM has announced it will cut 160 flights next month due to high fuel costs, though it says there is no immediate shortage. Meanwhile, Germany’s Lufthansa is shutting down its regional subsidiary Lufthansa CityLine, removing 27 aircraft from operations.
Experts say smaller inland airports are likely to be hit hardest, while major hubs such as Heathrow may be prioritized for limited fuel supplies.
Industry warnings
The Airports Council International Europe has warned the European Commission that shortages could begin in early May if tanker traffic does not resume.
The UK government says it is working with airlines and suppliers to ensure continuity, while Airlines UK is discussing contingency measures, including reducing regulatory burdens to protect consumers and trade.
Despite reassurances, analysts like Amaar Khan of Argus Media caution that shortages remain likely, especially as the busy summer travel season approaches.
Uneven impact across regions
While not all flights will be grounded, partial cancellations are expected across different airlines and airports. Rico Luman, another economist, noted that the impact will vary, with smaller airports more vulnerable than major hubs.
Even if supplies from the Gulf resume soon, delays in shipping mean shortages could persist for five to six weeks, affecting travel plans during peak holiday months.
Although a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran has been announced, negotiations have yet to produce a lasting solution. Talks, including those mediated by Pakistan, are ongoing but remain inconclusive.
With the final shipments of pre-war fuel now arriving in Europe, the aviation industry faces mounting uncertainty. Without a breakthrough, widespread flight disruptions may soon become unavoidable.
