Moody's, one of the three major credit rating agencies, downgraded the outlook on the U.S. credit rating from "stable" to "negative" on Friday.
The decision comes amid growing concerns over large fiscal deficits and a diminishing capacity to service debt, echoing similar sentiments expressed by Fitch earlier this year.
Moody's highlighted the impact of federal spending and escalating political polarization as key factors contributing to the negative outlook. Investors have become increasingly wary, leading to a sell-off that has pushed U.S. government bond prices to their lowest levels in 16 years.
Christopher Hodge, Chief Economist for the U.S. at Natixis, emphasized the challenging landscape, stating, "Deficits will remain large, and as interest costs take up a larger share of the budget, the debt burden will continue to grow."
Political calendar delays potential solutions
Moody's Senior Vice President William Foster pointed out that any significant policy response to address the declining fiscal strength might not materialize until 2025, citing the political realities of the upcoming year.
White House reaction
In response to Moody's decision, the Biden administration criticized what it deemed "congressional Republican extremism and dysfunction."
White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre expressed disagreement with the shift to a negative outlook, asserting that the American economy remains robust and Treasury securities are globally recognized as safe and liquid assets.
Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo defended the administration's commitment to fiscal sustainability, citing measures taken, including over $1 trillion in deficit reduction and a proposed reduction of nearly $2.5 trillion over the next decade.
Impact on financial markets
While some experts believe that a Moody's downgrade might heighten fiscal concerns, skepticism persists regarding a material impact on the U.S. bond market. Quincy Krosby, Chief Global Strategist at LPL Financial, noted that it serves as a reminder of the looming possibility of government shutdown and increased market volatility.
The Moody's decision coincides with a challenging period for President Biden, who has witnessed a decline in approval ratings. A recent New York Times/Siena poll indicated that Biden trails former President Donald Trump in key battleground states, intensifying the pressure on congressional Republicans to navigate funding legislation and avert a partial government shutdown.
Congressional challenges
The move by Moody's adds pressure on congressional Republicans to advance funding legislation and address the looming threat of a partial government shutdown.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson has engaged in talks with the Republican majority to devise stopgap measures. However, internal divisions within the party persist, with hardline Republicans emphasizing the need to curtail federal spending and address the escalating national debt.
As the political landscape intensifies, the Moody's decision serves as a stark reminder of the challenges facing the U.S. government in achieving fiscal responsibility amid deep-seated partisan divisions and ongoing economic uncertainties.
