A new global study has painted a grim picture of the rising obesity crisis, warning that nearly 60 percent of all adults and a third of all children will be overweight or obese by 2050 unless urgent action is taken.
Published in The Lancet medical journal on Tuesday, the study draws on data from 204 countries and describes the growing prevalence of overweight and obesity as one of the most significant health challenges of the 21st century.
“The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure,” said lead researcher Emmanuela Gakidou of the US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
According to the study, the number of overweight or obese individuals worldwide surged from 929 million in 1990 to 2.6 billion in 2021. If the current trend continues, the researchers estimate that by 2050, the figure will reach 3.8 billion adults—accounting for around 60 percent of the global adult population.
Rising pressure on healthcare systems
Researchers have warned that health systems around the world will come under severe strain, with approximately a quarter of the world's obese population expected to be over the age of 65 by 2050.
A particularly alarming trend is the projected 121 percent increase in obesity among children and adolescents, with a significant concentration in North Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
"More than half of the world’s overweight or obese adults already reside in just eight countries—China, India, the United States, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Egypt," the study noted.
Calls for urgent policy action
Experts have urged governments to take decisive action to counter the crisis. Jessica Kerr, co-author of the study and researcher at Australia’s Murdoch Children's Research Institute, stressed the need for stronger political commitment.
“Transforming diets within sustainable global food systems is essential,” she said, adding that policies must also focus on improving nutrition, promoting physical activity, and enhancing living environments.
While poor diets and sedentary lifestyles are widely recognised as key drivers of obesity, some researchers argue that deeper societal factors may also be at play.
In a commentary linked to The Lancet study, Thorkild Sorensen of the University of Copenhagen noted that socially deprived groups tend to have a “consistent and unexplained tendency” toward obesity, suggesting that the issue is more complex than lifestyle choices alone.
The research is based on data from the Global Burden of Disease study by the IHME, which collaborates with thousands of researchers worldwide and is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
With obesity set to pose an increasing challenge in the coming decades, researchers emphasise that it is not too late to act—but urgent and comprehensive policy interventions are needed to reverse the trajectory.
