Oil prices experienced fluctuations, settling slightly lower on Friday. However, both Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude recorded weekly gains.
Brent futures concluded 54 cents lower at $78.56 per barrel, while WTI crude fell 67 cents to settle at $73.41. Despite this, Brent saw a weekly gain of about 0.5%, and the U.S. benchmark rose over 1%.
Growing unease about the Chinese and global economies cast a shadow on oil markets, with slower-than-expected economic growth in China's fourth quarter raising doubts about future demand.
"The Chinese equity market this week dropped to near a five-year low," noted Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Bank. Concerns about weaker demand contributed to the decline in crude prices on Friday.
Middle East conflict
Meanwhile, economic concerns weighed on the market, and tensions in the Middle East provided support for oil prices throughout the week.
In Gaza, Israeli forces escalated tensions by pushing south against Hamas militants, and earlier in the week, the U.S. launched new strikes against Houthi anti-ship missiles in the Red Sea. Although these conflicts haven't halted oil production, ongoing supply outages persisted in Libya.
In the U.S., both geopolitical and weather-related factors contributed to supply disruptions.
About 30% of oil output in North Dakota, the country's third-largest producing state, remained shut due to extreme cold, cutting production by more than half. The state's pipeline authority stated that it could take a month for production to return to normal levels.
Global oil demand growth
On the other hand, uncertainty looms regarding global oil demand growth, with conflicting projections from key organizations.
The International Energy Agency raised its 2024 global demand forecast, but its estimate is only half that of the OPEC producer group. The agency mentioned that barring significant disruptions, the market seemed reasonably well supplied in 2024.
Market dynamics reflected a perception of tighter supply for prompt delivery.
The premium of the first-month Brent contract to the six-month contract rose to as much as $2.15 a barrel on Friday, the highest since November. This backwardation structure indicates the market's expectation of constrained supply in the near term.
Amidst the market dynamics, money managers made adjustments to their positions in U.S. crude futures and options.
According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net long positions were reduced in the week leading up to January 16.
