Gone are the days when oil was considered the king of energy. Despite being the largest energy source constituting nearly 31 percent of the total global energy demands, the black gold is set to lose its charm to rare earth elements (REEs). Since the world is transitioning from fossil fuels to clean energy, these rare earths are now being seen as the new ticket to power. This transition has provided Pakistan with a rare opportunity to step into this global race and make hay while the sun still shines. However, by rushing into this race without proper planning, Pakistan will actually be trading its green dreams for a potentially grey future.

Unsurprisingly, the demand for these 17 chemically similar elements has grown significantly. These elements are not actually rare, but have been named so because they are difficult to extract without damaging the environment. Also, they are central to technologies that power the green revolution. From electric vehicles to wind turbines and solar panels to advanced electronics, everything relies on these materials. This is why everyone wants them, and everyone is rushing to dig. After China, the United States, Australia, Myanmar, and a host of other countries, Pakistan, too, is being pitched as the next rare earth hub, for the country has an estimated mineral potential of more than $50 trillion. But this treasure should not be celebrated prematurely, as its hidden cost might be much higher than its value.

First things first, extracting and refining these elements is a dirty job, and the environmental carnage is well documented in regions where they are mined. Extraction generates radioactive waste, contaminates groundwater, and destroys biodiversity. China, which produces around 60 percent of the world’s REEs, has already borne the environmental brunt and turned once-thriving ecosystems into industrial wastelands. Moreover, villages near the mining zones have reported high cancer rates and crop failures. By going ahead with the extraction process, Pakistan risks walking the same path.

That brings us to the irony of the situation. In the name of fighting climate change, we are embracing an industry that not only destroys local ecosystems but also poisons rivers. It would be like solving one crisis by creating another.

Adding to the concerns are the country’s weak environmental infrastructure, inconsistent regulatory enforcement, and a less-than-ideal history of large-scale resource extraction marred by conflict and inequity. It would be naive to believe that this rare earth boom will uplift local communities in Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Be it Saindak or Reko Diq, history has shown that the promises of local development rarely translate into tangible gains for the affected communities. The only ones benefiting from this extraction would be our well-wishers offering us “aid,” “investment,” and “cooperation” in this regard.

Of course, Pakistan should explore its mineral wealth, but before getting on this multi-trillion-dollar ride, the state must devise a national strategy on mining waste and ensure enforcement of environmental safeguards. The ecological risks must be debated within as well as outside parliament, while plans for post-extraction rehabilitation should also be prepared in advance. The REEs might replace oil soon, and the opportunity for Pakistan is lucrative indeed, but we must not trade our future for short-term gains.

The state must realize that the dream of energy independence will remain just that if it does not control the process, set the terms, and protect the environment. Otherwise, we will be sleepwalking into a disaster, leaving behind ghost towns, sick populations, and land too toxic to use.