The 2025 monsoon season forecast for South Asia, based on data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), indicates a mixed outlook for Pakistan between June and September.
Northern and northeastern regions, including Islamabad, Peshawar, and Faisalabad, are expected to receive moderate to heavy rainfall, with Islamabad likely to receive up to 893 mm.
Peshawar and Faisalabad may get 202 mm and 326 mm, respectively. In contrast, central and southern parts of the country, such as Nawabshah and southwest Balochistan, are forecast to receive considerably less rainfall—around 165 mm.
Rainfall Distribution and Impact
Most parts of Pakistan are expected to receive between 100 to 500 mm of rain during the season, while areas around the northeast, particularly near Islamabad, may experience between 500 to 1,000 mm.
Compared to historical averages, the rainfall across much of Pakistan is forecast to be normal to slightly above normal, especially in the north and northeast, as shown by the light green zones on the anomaly map.
July is likely to be the wettest month, while rainfall in August and September will taper slightly, though it will still be significant in northern and central regions.
The upcoming monsoon outlook bodes well for replenishing water reservoirs and supporting agriculture in the north.
However, the high rainfall levels also raise concerns about possible flash floods or urban flooding, particularly in and around Islamabad. Meanwhile, southern Pakistan may remain drier than the rest of the country, keeping drought risks alive in those areas.
