Venezuela is on the brink of elections in 2024, but uncertainties loom large.
Despite the constitutional mandate for presidential elections every six years, no date has been set, and President Nicolas Maduro remains ambiguous about seeking reelection.
Meanwhile, his primary rival has been disqualified from running, adding to the prevailing uncertainty.
In 2018, the last presidential elections faced opposition boycotts, leading to Maduro's contested second term and international sanctions. Former opposition chief Juan Guaido assumed a symbolic "interim government" until January 2022.
Maduro, supported by a loyal domestic base and international alliances with Cuba, Russia, and China, weathered economic challenges and political pressure.
In October, the government, in collaboration with the opposition, agreed to hold elections in the second half of 2024 with international observers.
Washington responded by temporarily scaling back oil and gas sanctions, contingent on a free and fair vote, including the lifting of bans on opposition candidates.
Political analyst Ricardo Rios noted the government's efforts to overcome international isolation and maintain a favourable image.
Maduro, in power since 2013, has not confirmed his candidature, but his party's second-in-command, Diosdado Cabello, suggests he will be the official candidate.
Despite denials, Maduro has been engaging in what appears to be a year-long campaign, including pushing for a referendum on the disputed Essequibo territory.
Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who won significant support in a primary vote, is disqualified from public office for 15 years due to alleged corruption and support for sanctions. Her legal challenge to the ban is pending, raising doubts about a viable opposition candidate.
Venezuela's economic crisis, with a collapsed oil industry and an 80% GDP shrinkage until 2022, remains a critical backdrop.
Despite millions fleeing the country, Maduro touts recent economic improvements, with 4.5% growth in 2023 and expectations of 9.7% growth in 2024. The return of major oil companies signals hope, but election-related instability could impact economic projections.
The National Electoral Council (CNE) has yet to announce a voting date, adding further suspense to Venezuela's political landscape.
