Global oil markets are in turmoil as traders struggle to interpret mixed signals over the US and Israel’s war on Iran.

Dramatic swings in crude prices reflect uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and potential disruptions to global energy supply.

On Tuesday, Brent crude fell sharply by 17 percent, dropping below $80 a barrel, before rebounding near $90 following a now-deleted claim by US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright that the US Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later clarified there had been no armed escort, highlighting the continued closure of the critical waterway due to Iranian threats.

By Wednesday morning, oil prices had retreated below $85 per barrel after reports from The Wall Street Journal that the International Energy Agency was considering the largest-ever release of oil reserves to stabilize global supply.

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, making its near closure a major concern. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq have all reduced production amid storage capacity constraints.

Analysts warn that rising oil prices could worsen global inflation and slow economic growth. According to the International Monetary Fund, every 10 percent jump in oil prices could raise inflation by 0.4 percent and cut economic growth by 0.15 percent.

Countries like South Korea, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Pakistan have already implemented price caps and rationing measures to mitigate local impacts.

Threats from Iranian sea mines

The US military reported striking 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump warned Tehran against placing mines in the waterway.

However, analysts caution that escorting a single tanker has limited impact, as more than 100 vessels usually transit the strait daily. Persistent threats from Iranian drones and missiles continue to weigh on market sentiment.

President Trump has made inconsistent comments about the conflict’s timeline, saying it could end “very soon” while also insisting operations would continue “until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated.”

These conflicting signals have contributed to extreme volatility in oil markets, as traders struggle to gauge how quickly the flow of oil through the Middle East can return to normal.

Chad Norville, president of Rigzone, said, “The market briefly treated geopolitical risk as real and repriced supply disruption in earnest… What the market is really trying to determine is whether the overall flow of oil can revert to normal operations.”