Pakistan’s main threat at the T20 World Cup 2026 is not the loss of points from the boycott of the match against India, but the unpredictable weather in Colombo.

Pakistan are scheduled to play four matches in the group stage, one of which against India has already been officially boycotted. All of Pakistan’s group matches will be played in Sri Lanka, where forecasts of rain could seriously damage the team’s World Cup campaign, particularly after the decision not to play one match.

Of the remaining three fixtures, two are under significant threat from rain.

If even one match is washed out, Pakistan could lose crucial points, while the team’s net run rate may also suffer heavily. Net run rate remains a key factor in qualification for the next stage. Colombo’s weather has a history of uncertainty, and this unpredictability has emerged as a major concern for Pakistan.

If play is not completed in a key match, Pakistan may fall behind on the points table and slip into a weaker net run rate position compared to other teams.

According to weather forecasting service AccuWeather, Pakistan’s first match is scheduled for February 7 against the Netherlands, with the chance of rain estimated at around 64 per cent.

Rain is expected mainly during the second half of the match, raising concerns of disruption or a complete washout.

Pakistan’s final group match will be played against Namibia on February 18, where the probability of rain stands at 25 per cent. This suggests a higher chance of a full match, with only minor interruptions expected.

Under ICC regulations, a team that refuses to play a match is deemed to have forfeited the fixture. In such cases, the team loses two points and also suffers a negative impact on net run rate.

Considering the boycott and the looming threat of rain, Pakistan’s path to the Super 8 stage appears difficult, with Colombo’s weather shaping up as the biggest obstacle in the campaign.