Days before mass anti-government protests erupted in Iran in late December, Israeli and Iranian officials exchanged rare private assurances through Russia, agreeing not to launch preemptive attacks if neither side was struck first, diplomats and regional officials said.
According to diplomats and regional officials familiar with the exchange, Israel informed Iran via Russia that it would not carry out strikes against Iran unless Israel itself came under attack.
Iran responded through the same Russian channel, saying it would also refrain from launching any preemptive military action, despite the deep hostility between the two rivals, which fought a 12-day war in June.
Israel sought to avoid wider escalation
Officials said the unusual communication reflected Israel’s desire not to be seen as escalating tensions with Iran while it was preparing for a potential major military campaign against Hezbollah, the Iran-aligned militia based in Lebanon.
This private reassurance contrasted sharply with Israel’s public rhetoric late last year, when Israeli officials openly hinted at renewed strikes on Iran to counter what they described as Tehran’s rapidly rebuilding ballistic missile stockpile.
Possible US involvement
While Iranian officials responded positively to Israel’s outreach, they remained wary of Israeli intentions, according to two officials with knowledge of the messages.
Iran feared that even if Israel avoided direct action, the United States could still strike Iranian targets as part of a coordinated campaign with its ally, while Israel focused its military efforts on Hezbollah.
Despite the concerns, a senior regional official described the arrangement as beneficial for Tehran, saying it was “a good deal” for Iran to stay out of any potential Israel–Hezbollah conflict.
US officials have also noted that Iran’s substantive support for Hezbollah has already declined as Tehran grapples with widespread domestic unrest.
Protests and shifting calculations
It remains unclear how the recent and increasingly intense protests in Iran have altered the calculations in Tehran and Jerusalem, or whether both sides will continue to honour their private understanding.
President Donald Trump has been weighing possible attacks on Iranian regime targets in response to the crackdown on protesters, analysts say, a move that could prompt Iranian retaliation against Israel as a US ally.
Iran warns over US bases
A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday that Iran would retaliate against US military bases in the Middle East if attacked, without naming Israel among potential targets.
Observers say Israeli officials could still reconsider their December assurances if a US-led strike created what they perceived as an opportunity to weaken or topple Iran’s government.
Israel maintains defensive posture
As protests spread in Iran, Israeli officials have described their military preparations as defensive and avoided overtly aggressive language.
This comes despite Israel launching a complex surprise attack against Iran in June, even as nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran were ongoing.
Sima Shine, a former senior official at Israel’s intelligence service Mossad and now a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, said Israel would prefer the US to lead any potential strikes.
She added that while Israel might welcome regime change in Iran, it also faces the risk of becoming a direct target of Iranian retaliation.
Goal was to isolate Hezbollah
Israeli officials said the outreach was intended to keep Iran on the sidelines and isolate Hezbollah if Israel decided to act militarily.
One Israeli official said a campaign against Hezbollah remains possible regardless of developments with Iran, stressing that Israel continues to view the group as a serious threat due to its refusal to disarm.
The most recent exchange reportedly took place shortly after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Moscow in late December.
Russia has previously sought to position itself as a mediator between Israel and Iran, partly to strengthen its standing with Washington amid negotiations over the Ukraine war.
Netanyahu–Putin channel also reported
Israel’s public broadcaster KAN reported last week that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to relay messages to Iran that Israel did not intend to attack it.
Neither Netanyahu’s office nor Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to requests for comment.
