Australia’s Ashes preparations have suffered a major setback, with captain Pat Cummins still not cleared to bowl just over six weeks out from the series opener in Perth.

The star fast bowler is battling a lumbar bone stress issue in his lower back that continues to restrict his return to full fitness.

According to media reports, Cummins’ latest scan showed some improvement, but not enough for medical staff to allow him to resume bowling. This has cast serious doubt over his availability for the first Ashes Test starting November 21, and potentially the entire series.

Scan results show slow progress

While Cricket Australia (CA) has not issued an official statement, ESPNCricinfo reports that Cummins’ rehabilitation is progressing but remains incomplete. No decisions have been made yet regarding his participation in the first Test or the broader Ashes campaign.

Cummins, who has not bowled since Australia’s last Test in Jamaica in July, revealed in September that he was prepared to take calculated risks to play in the Ashes — even if it meant skipping both white-ball and red-ball lead-up games. However, the time available to safely rebuild his bowling workload is narrowing rapidly.

Tight recovery timeline and high risk factors

Medical and performance staff are wary of pushing Cummins too soon. Although he has focused on leg-strength training, he has been unable to perform rotational exercises critical for bowling. This limited preparation increases the risk of soft tissue injuries, particularly given Cummins’ history of ankle and muscle issues.

In the past, Cummins has undergone carefully structured build-ups before major series. Last year, he skipped Australia’s limited-overs tour of the UK to complete a 10-week training block ahead of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, playing only a handful of matches before returning to Test cricket.

Upcoming Ashes schedule and bowling rotation

The Ashes series begins in Perth on November 21, followed by Tests in Brisbane (Dec 4), Adelaide (Dec 17), Melbourne (Dec 26), and Sydney (Jan 3). If Cummins misses the opener, the trio of Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, and Scott Boland are expected to lead Australia’s pace attack through at least the Adelaide Test.

The schedule allows for eight-day breaks after the first two Tests, giving the quicks time to recover. However, shorter four-day gaps between the final three matches could make rotation crucial — as seen in the 2023 Ashes series, when England’s Mark Wood and Chris Woakes dominated after being rested early.

The risk of overuse injuries looms large, as highlighted by India’s Jasprit Bumrah, who suffered a back injury last summer after heavy workloads across consecutive Tests.

Australia’s backup bowling options

Managing workloads for Starc, Hazlewood, and Boland will be key. Starc and Hazlewood have been named in Australia’s ODI squad for the upcoming India series starting October 19, with Hazlewood also included in the first two T20Is from October 29. Both pacers are expected to feature in at least one Sheffield Shield match on November 10.

Boland, who bowled 35 overs in Victoria’s opening Shield game, is also set to feature in another match but is unlikely to play more than two before the Ashes. Among the reserve bowlers, Michael Neser impressed recently with six wickets on a flat pitch against Tasmania, while Brendan Doggett is recovering from a minor hamstring issue and is expected to play next week for South Australia.

Sean Abbott, another option, may return for New South Wales next week after missing the India ODIs. He’s also part of Australia’s T20I squad for the October 29 and 31 matches.

Steve Smith to lead if Cummins misses Perth Test

If Cummins is ruled out, Steve Smith will captain the side in Perth. Smith has filled in for Cummins six times since 2021 and has led Australia in 40 Tests overall. Vice-captain Travis Head remains a secondary leadership option but is unlikely to be chosen over Smith for such a high-stakes series.

Cummins’ recovery remains ongoing, and Cricket Australia is expected to make a final call closer to the series opener. For now, the focus will be on balancing risk with long-term player welfare as Australia prepares to defend the Ashes on home soil.