Pakistan’s hopes of reaching the Asia Cup 2025 final remain alive despite their defeat to India on Sunday, but their route is now uncertain and may ultimately come down to net run rate (NRR)

In the Super Four clash in Dubai, Pakistan posted 171–5 but fell short as India chased down the target in 18.5 overs.

Abhishek Sharma’s blistering 74 off 39 balls and Shubman Gill’s 47 off 28 ensured a six-wicket win for India, further strengthening their NRR advantage in the tournament.

The result has made Pakistan’s qualification scenario more complex, with NRR now a crucial factor.

How Pakistan can still qualify

Scenario 1: Three-way tie on one win each

If India win all their remaining three matches and Pakistan beat Bangladesh but lose to Sri Lanka, India would qualify with three wins. The other three sides would each have one win, leaving NRR to decide the second finalist.

Scenario 2: Three teams finish with two wins

If Pakistan defeat both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, India overcome Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh manage an upset against India, then three teams – Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh – would finish with two wins each. Once again, NRR would decide the finalists.

Scenario 3: Straightforward progress with two wins

If both Pakistan and India win all their remaining fixtures, they would advance directly to the final on September 26. India would top the table with three wins, Pakistan would secure two, while Bangladesh and Sri Lanka would be eliminated.

Bangladesh adds to drama

In the other Super Four fixture, Bangladesh edged past Sri Lanka in a nail-biting contest. Chasing 169, Bangladesh won by four wickets with just one ball to spare.

Key performances included Saif Hassan’s 61, Towhid Hridoy’s 58, and Mustafizur Rahman’s 3–20. For Sri Lanka, Dasun Shanaka fought hard with an unbeaten 64 off 37, but it wasn’t enough to secure victory.

The win for Bangladesh has kept the table open and increased the importance of upcoming matches.

Remaining fixtures

September 23: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Abu Dhabi)
September 24: India vs Bangladesh (Dubai)
September 25: Pakistan vs Bangladesh (Dubai)
September 26: India vs Sri Lanka (Dubai)