The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a red alert over the worsening flood situation in Punjab, warning that the Ravi River’s water levels will rise sharply in the coming days as India continues to release water from its dams.

Rising flood risk in Ravi River

According to the NDMA spokesperson, heavy rainfall in the upper catchment areas of the Ravi River is expected between August 30 and September 3. At the same time, additional water release from India’s Thein and Madhopur dams could push the river to dangerous levels.

Currently, the flow at Head Balloki stands at 147,000 cusecs, with levels likely to reach 150,000 cusecs at Sadhanai between September 2 and 3. Authorities have warned this could create a severe flood situation in parts of Lahore city, Raiwind, Sheikhupura, Nankana Sahib, Kasur, Pattoki, Okara, Renala Khurd, Deepalpur, Gogra, Tandlianwala, Kamalia, Pirmahal, Adda Hakim and Sahiwal.

Chenab River already at critical levels

While warnings continue for the Ravi, the Chenab River is already facing severe flooding, with a massive 855,000 cusecs recorded at Chiniot Bridge. The NDMA said it is actively monitoring relief operations in affected districts and has urged residents living along riverbanks to move to safer areas immediately.

Citizens urged to stay alert

The NDMA spokesperson appealed to citizens to avoid unnecessary travel in flood-hit areas and follow official advisories. Rescue and relief teams have been mobilized, but the authority stressed that the scale of flooding requires full public cooperation.

Met forecast: More rain ahead

The Met Department has confirmed that the current spell of monsoon rains is shifting to upper regions and will continue to affect flood-hit areas. Another round of heavy rainfall is predicted to enter Pakistan in the last days of the first week of September.

Deputy Director Irfan Virk revealed that Pakistan has already recorded 12% more monsoon rainfall than usual, with at least eight heavy rain spells hitting the country this year.

NDMA update on flood damage

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has released updated figures on losses caused by ongoing monsoon rains and floods across Pakistan.

According to the report, 23 more people lost their lives and six others were injured in the past 24 hours. Of the deceased, 22 were from Punjab and one from Azad Kashmir. This brings the total death toll from June 26 to August 29 to 842, while 1,117 people have been injured so far.

Breakdown of fatalities by region:

Punjab: 204 deaths
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: 479 deaths
Sindh: 57 deaths
Balochistan: 24 deaths
Gilgit-Baltistan: 41 deaths
Azad Kashmir: 29 deaths
Islamabad: 8 deaths

The NDMA further reported that 317 houses were damaged in the last 24 hours, raising the total number of destroyed or damaged homes since June 26 to 8,975. Meanwhile, 6,138 livestock have also perished due to floods.

Current flood situation in rivers

The water flow at Head Khanki in the Chenab River is 184,934 cusecs, at Head Qadirabad 185,222 cusecs, while the water flow at Chiniot Bridge has reached 855,000 cusecs, which is very high.

The water flow at Jassar on the Ravi River is 84,060 cusecs, at Shahdara 176,812 cusecs, at Head Balloki 162,820 cusecs, which is very high.

The water flow at Ganda Singh Wala in the Sutlej River has exceeded 350,000 cusecs, which is very high, due to which the water level is also rising in nearby areas. The water flow at Head Sulemanki has been recorded at 118,157 cusecs, and at Head Islam 58,764 cusecs.

Suparco’s satellite support

At a media briefing, Dr Muhammad Farooq, the director of space disaster at Suparco, said satellite images have played a crucial role in flood monitoring. He explained that this year's monsoon was very severe, as so far eight spells had been witnessed. He further said flood movements were tracked in real time and images were shared with provincial authorities, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Disaster Management Authority.

“Many areas remain surrounded by water, and satellite assessments are helping us evaluate risks and losses. We are now in the assessment phase regarding Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and we have also obtained satellite images regarding Ghizer,” he said.

He added that Suparco operates two communication satellites and four remote-sensing satellites, which are being used to map and respond to disasters. "If we use technology, it is possible to reduce disasters," the director said.

Dr Farooq explained that disaster management has four phases, adding that they were currently in the risk assessment phase, which would be followed by assessment of losses. The third phase involves hazard and capacity building assessment.

Concerns over India’s water releases

Dr. Farooq also expressed concern that India did not notify Pakistan’s Indus Commissioner before releasing excess water this year, a violation of the Indus Water Treaty that it unilaterally terminated. He recalled that India had similarly misreported water releases in 2014, calling the latest actions “a unilateral and dangerous move.”

He said this time, India had informed Pakistan through diplomatic channels, but did not disclose the amount of water. said.

"As soon as India released water, we immediately took pictures and shared them with the authorities. We even took pictures before the flood situation," he explained.

The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) Punjab reported that Ravi remains in a state of very high flood, with heavy flows passing through key points.

At Ravi Siphon, the water discharge has reached 202,428 cusecs, while at Shahdara the flow stands at 201,400 cusecs, according to PDMA officials.

Officials confirmed a gradual decrease in the Ravi’s flow. At Kot Nainan, the river flow is recorded at 62,600 cusecs, while at Jassar, it has reached 85,980 cusecs, marking a medium-level flood. Smaller tributaries are also swollen, with 2,756 cusecs in Nallah Baeen and 10,000 cusecs in Nallah Auj.

Flood losses in Punjab

A total of 1,839 houses damaged in floods.
1,461,398 people affected; 474 flood relief camps established.
Authorities set up 351 medical camps and 300 veterinary camps.
467,564 people evacuated to safer areas.
346,698 animals also rescued and evacuated.
Floods cause 25 deaths so far.
Three buildings reported damaged.

Growing humanitarian challenge

With the Ravi, Chenab, and Sutlej rivers all under strain, the situation across Punjab remains highly precarious. Thousands of families have already been displaced, crops destroyed, and livestock swept away.

Officials warn that the coming days will be critical, as more rainfall and cross-border water releases could worsen flooding across central and southern Punjab.