A spade must be called a spade. Budget 2025-26 spreads the pain thin and the hope thinner. It does check a few important boxes when it comes to revenue generation and debt management. Still, it reads more like a compliant document without the strength to stir public confidence, for it visibly targets the many and spares the few.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has presented a bill that tries to plant seeds on parched land without even irrigating the soil first. Instead of any worthwhile relief, people will endure new taxes to the tune of Rs400 billion, which of course are not likely to be paid by the usual tax-dodging elite or the sweetheart beneficiaries of amnesty schemes. In addition to that, the government expects to collect Rs390 billion through enforcement, an amount the finance minister dubbed “revenue leakage”.
The ambitious 14% tax-to-GDP target, up from a meagre 9.5%, makes one thing painfully clear that the net has been cast to ‘catch’ everything except the big fish. From small car buyers and solar panel users to interest earners and pensioners, everyone is expected to tighten their belts. However, the government must understand that it cannot widen the net if it keeps fishing in the same pond.
Furthermore, the budget proposes hitting non-filers with higher advance tax on cash withdrawals, now raised to 1 percent, while taxing pensioners earning over Rs10 million annually at the rate of 5%. While the latter is a step toward progressivity, the former might alienate a large, informal population that is still hesitant to enter the formal net. Moreover, the pinching carbon levy on POL products, although defensible on environmental grounds, could have waited to be dropped on the middle and lower-middle classes.
Meanwhile, the efforts to broaden the tax base through digital reforms in the FBR are a welcome move. But technology alone would not fix what is basically a trust deficit between citizen and state. People will pay taxes only when they believe the money will come back to them in the form of development projects.
On energy reforms, the progress the finance bill talks about is just a mirage. Despite promised relief, power tariffs keep burning holes in the pockets of households and industries alike. In addition, the circular debt continues to haunt not just consumers but also the state itself. The same can be said of state-owned enterprises. Year after year, the budget announces privatization drives, categorization strategies, and restructuring roadmaps, but little has changed. The government must translate its words into actions this time around and stop dressing up loss-making state enterprises as if they are salvageable. Sell them, reform them, or simply shut them down, but stop hoping for a miracle to fix them.
Also, perhaps the most disappointing oversight is in the agriculture sector, which barely made it into the budget document despite being the backbone of our economy. Amid a year of erratic rains, food inflation, and protests, the absence of subsidies and schemes for small farmers comes as a surprise. A major cushion for this sector is an unavoidable necessity unless the government plans to eat tax targets throughout the next year. Equally upsetting is the cold shoulder given to the health and education sectors that saw no sweeping reforms or funding surges. Policymakers must realize that drafting a budget without focusing on human capital is like pouring water into a leaky bucket.
To truly move forward, the government must stop kicking the can down the road and start dealing with the mess head-on. Because time is running out, and so is public patience
To its credit, the government is trying to make some sensible moves like cutting vacant posts, aiming to right-size the public sector, and bringing some discipline to pensions. These steps are long overdue, but they must not come at the cost of service delivery.
The government’s efforts to please everyone are quite visible, but they risk satisfying no one. It has tried to pacify the IMF with fiscal targets, flattered the markets with digital reforms, and offered the public crumbs. In short, this is a budget with one foot in the future and the other chained in old habits. It once again chooses easy targets over structural change. To truly move forward, the government must stop kicking the can down the road and start dealing with the mess head-on. Because time is running out, and so is public patience.
