Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) emerged victorious in Germany’s national election, securing 28.6% of the vote. However, the result fell short of the 30% target the party had hoped for, complicating coalition-building efforts.

Addressing jubilant supporters, Merz, 69, acknowledged the challenges ahead. “Let's celebrate tonight and in the morning, we'll get to work,” he said, underscoring the responsibility now placed upon him.

The CDU’s triumph was met with an even stronger showing by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which secured 20.8%—its best-ever result—fueled by strong support in eastern Germany, where it garnered 34% of the vote.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel celebrated the historic performance but hinted at future ambitions, stating, “Next time, we’ll come first.” The party’s success was partly attributed to a robust social media strategy, particularly on TikTok, which resonated with younger voters.

Coalition uncertainty looms

Despite the win, Merz faces a difficult path in forming a government. Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) suffered their worst post-war performance, securing just 16.4%. Scholz conceded defeat, ruling out any role in coalition negotiations.

Merz, a former corporate executive with no prior ministerial experience, had hoped for a clear mandate to form a two-party coalition. However, with the SPD out of contention, his options are limited. The Greens, who won 11.8%, remain a potential partner, though tensions exist between the two parties. Merz had previously dismissed Green leader Robert Habeck as a mere “representative for heat pumps.” A three-party coalition might be necessary, but this risks political instability, echoing the challenges of Scholz’s now-collapsed government.

Voter turnout was recorded at 83%—the highest since German reunification in 1990—indicating widespread public engagement amid growing concerns over economic stagnation, migration, and security.

Merz signals shift from US

One of Merz’s most striking post-election statements was his call for reducing Germany’s dependence on the United States, marking a shift from the CDU’s traditionally Atlanticist stance. He criticized recent U.S. political interventions, particularly those by President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk, who openly supported the AfD. Trump welcomed the election results, claiming they reflected a broader rejection of liberal policies on immigration and energy.

However, Merz distanced himself from Trump’s endorsement. “The Trump administration has shown itself largely indifferent to Europe’s fate,” he remarked in a televised discussion, adding that his priority would be to “strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can achieve real independence from the U.S. step by step.”

He also questioned NATO’s future, suggesting a potential reassessment of the alliance’s structure. His remarks reflect growing European unease over Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine, where he controversially referred to President Volodymyr Zelensky as a “dictator” and implied Kyiv bore responsibility for the war initiated by Russia.

The AfD’s surge, fueled by economic grievances and migration concerns, has cemented its position as Germany’s second-largest party. While mainstream parties continue to maintain a strict “firewall” against cooperating with the far-right, the AfD’s growing influence has reshaped Germany’s political landscape. The party also benefited from strong backing among younger voters, along with a resurgence of the Left Party, which secured nearly 9% after a last-minute boost from viral speeches by co-leader Heidi Reichinnek.

Economic and political uncertainty

Germany’s economy remains a pressing concern, with two consecutive years of contraction raising fears about global competitiveness. Businesses remain wary of prolonged coalition negotiations, which could stall policy decisions.

Economists warn that another three-party coalition risks political paralysis unless decisive reforms are enacted. “If the new government fails to deliver significant change, foreign investments will be held back, further weakening Germany’s economic outlook,” noted Carsten Brzeski, head of macro at ING Bank.

As coalition talks unfold, Scholz will remain in a caretaker role, delaying urgent economic measures. This vacuum in leadership comes as Europe faces pressing challenges, including tensions with Russia and the uncertainty of Trump’s potential return to power in the U.S.

With coalition negotiations set to be protracted, Germany finds itself at a political crossroads. While Merz has secured a historic victory, his ability to govern effectively hinges on navigating a deeply divided political landscape.