Climate change is not a distant threat—it’s already here, and its repercussions are being felt across the globe. For countries like Pakistan, where millions of people rely on agriculture for their livelihoods, where cities face unprecedented population growth, and where political tensions over resources are already high, the threat of climate change is deeply intertwined with national security concerns.

From rising temperatures and shifting monsoons to the scarcity of water and agricultural disruptions, climate change is contributing to resource conflicts in ways that will only intensify in the coming decades.

In Pakistan, this evolving crisis presents a growing challenge to both the environment and security. How climate change exacerbates resource conflicts—particularly over water, land, and food—holds significant implications for the stability of the nation. In this blog, we’ll explore how climate change is directly contributing to national security risks in Pakistan, shedding light on the complex relationship between environmental changes and political, social, and economic instability.

Climate change and water scarcity

Water is a life-sustaining resource, yet it’s in short supply in Pakistan. With a population of over 240 million, Pakistan is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world. According to the United Nations, Pakistan’s per capita water availability has dropped from 5,000 cubic meters in the 1950s to under 1,000 cubic meters today. The country is on the verge of becoming one of the most water-scarce nations globally. However, the problem is not just a result of over-extraction, but also the effects of climate change.

Pakistan’s water supply primarily depends on the Indus River system, which is fed by glacial meltwater from the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalayas. The glaciers that feed these rivers are melting at an alarming rate due to rising temperatures. According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), glaciers in the region are retreating at a rate of 30 to 60 meters annually, contributing to a decrease in the volume of water available to the Indus River system.

Climate Water Visualization
Infogram

In the short term, the melting glaciers may cause an initial surge in river flow, but in the long run, they will reduce the water supply, particularly during the dry summer months. This unpredictable and diminishing water supply is causing tension among the provinces in Pakistan, especially between Punjab and Sindh, which rely heavily on irrigation for their agricultural productivity.

Impact on agriculture and food security

Pakistan’s agricultural sector, which contributes around 24% of GDP and employs 42% of the labor force, is highly dependent on irrigation. As water resources become more strained, the agricultural sector faces significant disruptions, threatening food security across the country.

Climate change has led to unpredictable monsoon rains, with the intensity and timing of rainfall becoming erratic. This is wreaking havoc on crop production, as crops are either drowned in unexpected floods or fail due to droughts. For instance, the 2022 floods, which were exacerbated by unseasonal heavy rains, submerged vast agricultural lands in Sindh and Balochistan, leading to crop failures and exacerbating food shortages. The floods caused over $30 billion in damages, with agriculture and livestock being hit hardest.

Climate change weighing on agriculture | World Grain

Food insecurity in Pakistan has been on the rise, and climate change is making it worse. According to the Global Hunger Index (GHI), Pakistan ranks 106th out of 116 countries, with nearly 40% of the population facing hunger and malnutrition. As agricultural output declines due to changing rainfall patterns and water shortages, food prices are expected to rise, further deepening the vulnerability of the population, especially in rural areas.

Straining already fragile tensions

Water scarcity and its impact on agriculture are not the only climate-related security threats Pakistan faces. As resources become more scarce, competition over land and water rights has intensified, particularly in areas where agriculture is the primary source of livelihood. This often leads to conflicts between provinces and communities.

In Balochistan, for example, ongoing water disputes between local farmers and the federal government have led to violent protests. These disputes have been aggravated by the increasing frequency of droughts, which are drying up wells and causing crop failures. Similarly, Punjab’s agricultural sector has faced water shortages, leading to protests from local farmers demanding more water from the canals fed by the Indus River.

Water Shortage: Causes and Effects | Earth.Org

Land use is also affected by the rise in temperatures, which causes soil degradation and desertification. The Thar Desert, which spans both India and Pakistan, is expanding as a result of shifting climate patterns, threatening the livelihoods of people living in these areas. Farmers and pastoral communities, already struggling to make a living, are increasingly being displaced due to these environmental changes. This intensifies social tensions, particularly in already underdeveloped and politically unstable regions.

Climate-induced migration

As climate impacts like water shortages, extreme weather events, and crop failures worsen, climate-induced migration is becoming a major issue in Pakistan. Rural areas, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan, are already seeing significant migration to cities in search of better opportunities. This urban migration is placing further strain on already overstretched cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad, leading to resource conflicts in urban areas.

According to the United Nations, Pakistan is expected to see large-scale internal migration in the coming decades, with millions of people forced to move due to climate-related factors. The displacement of people from rural areas to urban centers exacerbates the risk of social unrest, poverty, and political instability. Large-scale migration also puts pressure on infrastructure and services in urban centers, where many people live in informal settlements and lack access to basic necessities.

Migration Flow Insights
Infogram

The movement of people, both internally and across borders, is also increasing tensions with neighboring countries, particularly India, which shares water resources with Pakistan. Water disputes between the two countries, such as the one over the Kishanganga Dam, have the potential to escalate into more significant conflicts, further complicating the security landscape in the region.

National security risks: How the military is responding

Pakistan’s military has recognized the significant security risks posed by climate change. In 2019, Pakistan’s military published its own climate change strategy, which highlights the growing concerns about how environmental changes could affect the security environment, especially in conflict-prone areas. The strategy emphasizes the need for resilience-building, resource management, and conflict resolution in areas that are already facing pressure due to resource scarcity.

The military’s strategy also includes measures to address internal displacement and migration, which could strain national security. By taking a more proactive role in disaster response and climate adaptation, the military hopes to mitigate the risks of climate-induced conflicts. Moreover, Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) works closely with military forces to respond to natural disasters, including floods, heatwaves, and droughts, which are exacerbated by climate change.

Climate change is already a driving force behind resource conflicts in Pakistan, and its security implications are only expected to grow. Water scarcity, food insecurity, land conflicts, and climate-induced migration present significant threats to the country’s social and political stability. The risks posed by climate change to Pakistan’s national security demand urgent action—not just in terms of mitigating environmental impacts but also in creating a more resilient and adaptive society.

To protect its citizens and preserve national stability, Pakistan must strengthen its capacity to manage resources sustainably, improve agricultural resilience, and address migration issues through effective urban planning and social programs. Collaborative efforts between the government, civil society, and the military will be essential to navigating the challenges ahead.