China is on track to see its lowest number of new marriages since records began, reflecting a deepening demographic crisis despite a widespread government effort to promote marriage and encourage childbirth.

Official data indicates that 4.74 million couples registered marriages in the first three quarters of 2024, a 16.6% decrease from 5.69 million during the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs.

The marriage decline aligns with a steady decrease since 2013, when new marriages peaked at over 13 million. Experts predict that the 2024 figure may fall below the record low of 6.83 million in 2022, despite a brief marriage rebound last year after COVID-19 restrictions lifted, driven mostly by pent-up demand.

China’s shrinking population, now surpassed by India as the world’s most populous nation, and its record-low birth rate in 2023 are major concerns for Beijing, which is focused on the economic impacts of a shrinking workforce and ageing society.

Chinese officials attribute falling birth rates to the declining number of marriages, as cultural norms and regulations make it challenging for unmarried couples to have children.

In response, the government has introduced numerous policies, including financial incentives, blind dating events, mass weddings, and efforts to reduce the traditional “bride price,” which can make marriage unaffordable for poorer men in rural areas.

In 2022, the Family Planning Association launched pilot programs across cities to cultivate a “new-era marriage and childbearing culture” that promotes childbearing’s social value and encourages marriage at an “appropriate age.”

However, these measures have had limited success. Faced with rising living costs, high unemployment, and insufficient social welfare amid economic challenges, many young Chinese are delaying or even forgoing marriage and children. China’s decades-long one-child policy has also contributed to a decrease in the young, marriageable population, even after it was expanded to a two-child policy in 2015 and a three-child policy in 2021.

Evolving attitudes, particularly among young, educated women who are increasingly financially independent, are also a factor. Some women are disillusioned with marriage, facing societal expectations for childcare and housework and encountering workplace discrimination.

Since 2021, China has imposed a 30-day “cooling-off” period for divorces, despite concerns that it may make leaving difficult or abusive marriages harder. In 2024, divorces showed a slight year-on-year decrease, with 1.96 million registrations in the first nine months.

China is not alone in grappling with declining marriage and birth rates. Japan and South Korea have also rolled out financial incentives, housing subsidies, and childcare support in recent years with limited results.