A recent study published in the prestigious medical journal, The Lancet, has revealed that the cumulative death toll from Israel’s war on Gaza could exceed 186,000 people.

This alarming figure includes indirect deaths resulting from diseases and the collapse of essential services, even if hostilities were to cease immediately.

According to Gaza’s Ministry of Health, over 38,000 Palestinians have lost their lives since the military offensive launched by Israel on October 7, following deadly Hamas attacks.

However, the Lancet study indicates that this number does not account for the thousands of individuals buried under rubble and those who have perished due to the destruction of healthcare facilities, food distribution systems, and other vital infrastructure.

Indirect deaths

The study emphasizes that conflicts have far-reaching health implications beyond the immediate casualties from violence. It asserts that the current war will likely result in numerous indirect deaths in the months and years to come due to disease outbreaks, malnutrition, and lack of access to healthcare.

In similar recent conflicts, indirect deaths have ranged from three to fifteen times the number of direct fatalities. Using a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths for every direct death, the study projects that the death toll in Gaza could reach or even surpass 186,000.

The report underscores the devastating impact of the war on Gaza’s infrastructure. The destruction has led to severe shortages of food, water, and shelter, exacerbated by the funding cuts to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees. The compromised infrastructure has rendered it nearly impossible to maintain accurate death counts, further suggesting that the actual toll could be significantly higher.

The Lancet study also addresses accusations of data fabrication against Palestinian authorities in Gaza, noting that such claims are considered “implausible” by Israeli intelligence services, the United Nations, and the World Health Organization.

With Gaza’s pre-war population standing at 2.3 million, the estimated death toll would represent nearly 8% of its inhabitants. The findings paint a grim picture of the long-term consequences of the conflict, highlighting the urgent need for humanitarian intervention and the cessation of hostilities to prevent further loss of life.